Entertainment is a funny thing.
For those of you who have been keeping score, the Wolverine film opened to mostly negative reviews as well as having a mostly completed workprint of the film released nearly a month before opening day. Meanwhile, J.J. Abrams’ reboot of the Star Trek franchise had been overwhelmingly praised both by the general reviewer community (and, full disclosure, by yours truly).
But look at the weekend openings: Wolverine earned more than $85 million, while Star Trek only netted $75 million.
It kinda makes you wonder: are reviewers just screaming into the wind? Is piracy meaningless? Or is Wolverine simply the best there is at what he does? Well, I’ve got some speculation of my own on that note.
First and foremost, let’s look at what Wolverine has in its favor that Star Trek doesn’t. First and foremost, Wolverine has that most coveted of demographics: women. Our very own Sarah Jaffe opined that the film was very pretty-boy heavy, and let me tell you, at my theatre there was a lot of catcalling at shirtless and/or nude Wolverine. But Hugh Jackman is a suave guy — winning People Magazine’s Sexiest Man Alive last year — and Ryan Reynolds, Taylor Kitsch, and even Liev Schreiber don’t exactly ugly up the picture.
Star Trek, despite its many virtues, doesn’t quite have that edge. Star Trek, despite its prominence in the national imagination, doesn’t have a tried and tested audience for the 20-something crowd. Even with the spectacular reviews, Zachary Qunto’s mini-bowl cut and the hordes of Klingon linguists out there make Star Trek a film that some geeks have to drag their significant others to. The women probably won’t regret it — and I would be remiss to not say that there are certainly female Trekkies out there in similar plights with their clueless boyfriends — but all the same, Star Trek’s targeted demographic isn’t as broad (no pun intended).
Anyway, so there’s the sex factor. For the fellas, there’s also the high-octane action side of it: the same people who are going to thrill to Live Free or Die Hard, just to give an example, are going to be fine with the simple action value. In other words: the stigma of comics being “one-dimensional” or “not something that’ll make you think” worked out in this film’s favor — even if that doesn’t exactly advance the plight of comics as a whole. That said, I think that that means that Wolverine is playing the short game with its numbers — while it’s continuing to rake in cash, I’m wondering how long that will last, with the fan culture having to deal not just with Star Trek, but Transformers, G.I. Joe, Terminator: Salvation…
But what about the piracy? We’ve already reported that Fox stated 4 million people downloaded the workprint. Well, you have to look at it like this: (A) at least some percentage wasn’t going to see the film (or at least pay for it) anyway; (B) some of these are outside the U.S.; and, most importantly (C) it was an unfinished print. With missing scenes and comically unfinished special effects, I don’t think the piracy was nearly as damaging as people thought. On the contrary, I think the workprint actually provided some immense cover for Wolverine, as people resolved NOT to review an unfinished copy of an action movie. By the time reviewers started feeling comfortable getting reviews out, I think many people unconsciously stayed away from them, keeping the negative buzz down about the film. In other words: everyone knew Wolverine was coming, but not much more.
That’s actually not too different than Star Trek. The film pulled a late marketing blitz, but obviously not equal to the video games/comics/FX marathons/iPhone apps/Papa Johns pizza deals that Wolverine had. It also had to contend with the image of J.J. Abrams — there are so many people out there who are burned out by Lost (either trying to pick it up, or simply displeased with how the current season is going) that despite the true accessibility of the film (at least to a non-Trekkie like myself) as well as great reviews, some people may equate Star Trek to a convoluted continuity beast like Lost.
Finally, I think the last part has simply to do with timing. While Star Trek opened to compete with Wolverine, Wolverine opened almost completely unopposed, save for Ghosts of Girlfriends Past and Battle for Terra — two films which, as I explained above, basically lost their target audiences to the Ol’ Canucklehead. Combine that with it being the first film of the summer season, and you have a recipe for huge box office gross. The real question is whether or not Wolverine will take a dive once initial interest runs out, a la Watchmen. (Considering Wolverine has already experienced a 68 percent drop between its first and second week, I’m not sure his healing factor will ride out the summer.)
With all the spectacular reviews as well as late-breaking PR (including a stint on SNL this weekend), I’m predicting that Star Trek will be playing the long game, soaking up box office dollars for months and months like Iron Man before it. But with a bunch of other genre heavyweights in tow for this summer — including the sixth Harry Potter film — only time will tell exactly how this will all shake up.